Using Bayesian and MCMC approaches for parameter estimation and model evaluation in physiology

Carson Chow (February 23, 2012)

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Abstract

Presentation: http://mbi.osu.edu/2011/rasmaterials/mbibayes20121_chow.pdf
Differential equations are often used to model biological and physiological systems. An important and difficult problem is how to estimate parameters and decide which model among possible models is the best. I will show in several examples how Bayesian and Markov Chain Monte Carlo approaches provide a self-consistent framework to do both tasks. In particular, Bayesian parameter estimation provides a natural measure of parameter sensitivity and Bayesian model comparison automatically evaluates models by rewarding fit to the data while penalizing the number of parameters.